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Dismantling North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Programs

David J. Bishop

出版	Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005
主題	History / Military / Nuclear WarfarePolitical Science / General
ISBN	15848719469781584871941
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ceuFLr00knEC&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

This study examines the choices available to the United States for dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons programs. The options range from doing nothing, to executing policies of engagement, containment, or preemption. Each option has advantages and disadvantages and there are numerous factors influencing the problem. The major factors include U.S. national interests, the role of China, the ROK-U.S. alliance, the difficult nature of North Korea, and the U.S. war on terror. Engagement is less risky in the short term because it reduces the risks of miscalculation and escalation by preventing the conditions that support North Korea seeing war as a rational act. However, it is risky in the long term because it allows North Korean nuclear weapons development to proceed unchecked. This could lead to proliferation to terrorists and rogue states. Containment's main advantage is that it takes a direct path to solving the problem. Its major disadvantage is that it could cause North Korea, a failing state, to view war as a rational act. Containment also is not supported by friends and allies in the region. Preemption is the most direct method to ensure elimination of North Korea's nuclear weapons. However the risks associated with this option could lead to catastrophic loss of life and devastation and ultimately to loss of U.S. influence in the region. The optimal course of action is not one policy in particular, but a combination of engagement and containment. Furthermore, preemptive action will invite foreign policy disaster for the U.S. and should only be used as a last resort. Specific policy recommendations to improve implementation of a hybrid policy of engagement and containment include:strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance, supplementing multilateral talks with bilateral talks, offering a formal security guarantee to North Korea, broadening the Proliferation Security Initiative to include China, and improving national intelligence capabilities. If preemption must be used, national leaders must know what conditions would trigger the decision and they must prepare in advance the necessary protocol for warning and informing friends, allies and other concerned parties.