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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Graciela Laura Kaminsky
出版International Monetary Fund, 1997-07-01
主題Business & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Banks & Banking
ISBN14519558639781451955866
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=cnYYEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.