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Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy
Helge BergerMichael EhrmannMarcel Fratzscher
其他書名
Accuracy is (still) a Matter of Geography
出版Europ. Central Bank, 2006
ISBN39383693619783938369364
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=d24H72OhVbAC&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to countryspecific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent. monetary policy ; ECB ; forecast ; geography ; history; heterogeneity; Taylor rule ; learning ; transmission ; survey data ; communication