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Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty

Ann-Charlotte EliassonMr. Peter IsardMr. Douglas Laxton

出版	International Monetary Fund, 1999-04-01
主題	Business & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Economics / GeneralBusiness & Economics / International / Economics
ISBN	14518960509781451896053
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=d2ZO4xllx90C&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

Using stochastic simulations and stability analysis, the paper compares how different monetary rules perform in a moderately nonlinear model with a time-varying nonaccelerating-inflation-rate-of-unemployment (NAIRU). Rules that perform well in linear models but implicitly embody backward-looking measures of real interest rates (such as conventional Taylor rules) or substantial interest rate smoothing perform very poorly in models with moderate nonlinearities, particularly when policymakers tend to make serially correlated errors in estimating the NAIRU. This challenges the practice of evaluating rules within linear models, in which the consequences of responding myopically to significant overheating are extremely unrealistic.