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The Ineliminable Bias

其他書名	Identity as a Foundational Source for Error in Intelligence Analysis
出版	Dartmouth College, 2012
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=e7GcMwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋The high stakes of reasoning in intelligence are best seen in its failures. Pearl Harbor, September 11th, and Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction all evocatively illustrate the potentially serious consequences of flawed reasoning intelligence. Naturally, as a result, every effort is taken to establish the reliability of the facts and processes in intelligence so as to ensure the most accurate outcome. To this end, there are numerous analytical tools that seek to remove the most common sources or error. Typically, such tools simply aim to remove the prior conceptual frameworks that introduce bias into reasoning. However, some conceptual frameworks are so fundamental that they cannot be eliminated from an individual's reasoning. Theories of individual and group identity, for example, underpin all social perceptions. As a result, to even be perceived as a social entity is synonymous with having an identity. Therefore, this thesis seeks to investigate how errors in applying these most basic conceptual frameworks can propagate error throughout the intelligence cycle, ultimately resulting in flawed foreign policy.