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Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence
Mr.Olivier J. BlanchardMr.Jonathan David OstryMr.Atish R. GhoshMr.Marcos Chamon
出版International Monetary Fund, 2015-10-23
主題Business & Economics / Banks & BankingBusiness & Economics / Investments & Securities / BondsBusiness & Economics / Foreign Exchange
ISBN151354909X9781513549095
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ejwYEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsetting the contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically and empirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data.