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Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence
Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Francesca G Caselli
Francesco Grigoli
Bertrand Gruss
Weicheng Lian
出版
International Monetary Fund
, 2018-12-11
主題
Business & Economics / Inflation
Business & Economics / Economics / Macroeconomics
Business & Economics / Foreign Exchange
ISBN
148439223X
9781484392232
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=fRGEDwAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
