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New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning

出版	Defense Technical Information Center, 1998
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=fepjwgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof of concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S & T) planning. These methods exploit new information technologies in order to (1) improve the quality of the S & T planning process by using online computer assisted decision support tools that make relevant information more easily available to expert panelists meeting over the World Wide Web, and help panelists include and compensate for the effects of uncertainty by treating an S & T plan as a portfolio of technology investments hedged against a wide range of plausible futures. (2) Provide a lasting electronic archive of the expert discussions and other information that go into building an S & T plan. (3) Lower the travel related costs and scheduling constraints of the current planning process by supplementing face to face expert panel meetings with asynchronous meetings over the World Wide Web. The demonstration made use of two new RAND methodologies: HyperForum, a facilitated Web based collaborative exercise, conducted in a carefully crafted, information rich, online environment, and Exploratory Modeling, a new approach to generating systematic, quantitative comparisons among alternative policy decisions without relying on imperfect predictions of the future. This documented briefing describes that demonstration. It should be of interest to decisionmakers responsible for choosing, managing, and justifying portfolios of science and technology research projects in the Department of Defense and other federal agencies, and in the private sector. In addition, it should be informative to those readers interested in how new information technologies can provide new methods for planning and decisionmaking under uncertainty.