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Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales

出版	RAND, 2021
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=g9PEzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋In this report, the authors examine Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states. The authors draw from publicly available information compiled in a database to illustrate when U.S. diplomatic engagement or the prospect of U.S. sanctions has led third countries to reconsider importing Russian weapons. The data set used for this report contains 65 cases in 33 countries of Russian arms export negotiations and sales, beginning in July 2017 and ending in May 2021; these cases illustrate that, as U.S. officials acknowledge, the monetary value of lost Russian arms sales due to U.S. diplomatic efforts buttressed by the prospect of third-party sanctions is difficult to determine with precision. However, there are several examples of countries that clearly entertained purchasing Russian weapons and then, because of the chilling effect of possible sanctions, demurred and opted not to do so. Analysis of these cases indicates that diplomatic outreach to arms-buying countries will likely be most effective when it acknowledges the legacy of Russian arms exports; the desire to assert independence from Russia and/or the United States; and the availability of suitable, competitively priced alternatives to meet buyers' security needs. To better meet the objectives of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the United States must ensure that foreign officials and publics receive a narrative focused mainly on the harm caused by Russian malign behavior rather than the threat of U.S. sanctions.