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Making Sense of Transnational Threats: Workshop Reports

出版	Rand Corporation arlington va national security research Division, 2005
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=hICdPwAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋The project's emphasis on moving beyond "alternative analysis" as now practiced reflected a judgment - an impressionistic one, but one that was widely shared by other participants in the project - that whether for traditional or transnational issues, alternative analysis now is used only episodically in the analytic process and often on less critical issues (such as long-run prospects for a country) and is often viewed more as a supplemental exercise than as an essential component of the overall analytic process, and thus is not particularly effective in influencing analytic judgments even when a serious effort is made to address a key issue. GFP and RAND convened a series of unclassified one-day workshops from February to September 2003 to examine how to better integrate alternative analysis into the analytic process. The workshops brought together - on a non-attribution basis - analysts from the CIA's DI and from other agencies focused on transnational issues, along with a distinguished group of more than 30 non-governmental experts. These experts came from a variety of disciplines relevant to thinking about the analytic process - cognitive psychology, psychiatry, group dynamics, information technology, organizational studies, knowledge management, artificial intelligence, diplomatic history, technology studies, strategic studies, and even journalism, along with experts in specific transnational domains such as terrorism and proliferation. The aim of the workshops - which featured both formal presentations and break-out group discussions - was to blend the widely varied perspectives of the participants with the aim of generating new ideas that could ultimately yield more concrete proposals. The intent was not so much to provide a detailed roadmap for transforming alternative analysis for transnational issues, but rather to suggest which broad direction this process ought to head.