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Risk Assessment in the Evaluation of Water Resources Projects

Vicente P. P. B. Vieira

出版	Colorado State University, 1978
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=h_lCAAAAIAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

The assessment of risks, associated with water resources development programs. has been lately recognized as an essential issue in the whole planning process. The author defends the idea that explicit identification of uncertainties and risks in project evaluations, turns the decisions more realistic, and consequently, more reliable. The paper establishes a framework for the identification of uncertainties involved in a water project and defines a metodology for risk evaluation based on the first-order second-moment reliabllity theory and on the Monte Carlo simulation technique.