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Demographic Changes and Real Housing Prices in Canada

Mario FortinAndré LeclercCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

出版	Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 1999
主題	Business & Economics / Real Estate / Buying & Selling HomesPolitical Science / Public Policy / City Planning & Urban Development
ISBN	06601824329780660182438
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=hqRRAQAAMAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This report examines the hypothesis that in an ageing Canadian population, the number of home buyers is bound to decrease, leading to a decline in prices of residential real estate. The current real housing price determination model is first reviewed and the historical evolution of real housing prices in Canada at both national & provincial levels is studied. To complete the historical overview, the evolution in the factors likely to influence housing prices is reviewed by examining growth of the adult population, real income, interest & inflation rates, and rate of growth in number of dwellings. Chapter 4 focusses on the debate on the hypothesis and the way it has been received by real estate market analysis and generalists. Chapter 5 presents a detailed review of the empirical studies on the relation between housing prices & demographic changes. In chapter 6, an empirical model containing a price equation and a housing stock equation is specified & first estimated using Canadian data and then using provincial data. The last chapter uses an empirical model to evaluate the impact of demographics & economic conditions on the change in housing prices during the 1956-1997 period, and to establish the housing price outlook for the 1956-2016 period. These forecasts consider three demographic growth scenarios and two economic growth scenarios to extract a set of six housing price & stock forecasts for the 1998-2016 period.