返回Google圖書搜尋

Global Economic Prospects, Volume 6, January 2013

其他書名	Assuring Growth Over the Medium Term
出版	World Bank Publications, 2013
ISBN	08213988229780821398821
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=iDGj-T1thR0C&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook	SAMPLE

註釋Four years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy continues to struggle. regain pre-crisis growth rates, developing countries must once again emphasize internal productivity-enhancing policies. While headwinds from restructuring and fiscal consolidation will persist in high-income countries, these should become less intense allowing for a slow acceleration in growth over the next several years. _x000D_ Fragile rebound after mid-year turmoil ... _x000D_ Financial markets conditions have improved markedly since mid 2012 due to national and EU-wide measures to improve fiscal sustainability, and the augmentation of measures that the European Central Bank (ECB) would take in defense of the euro, but so far the so far economic growth has not rebounded as sharply partly because of policy induced uncertainty, which has contributed to keep business-sector confidence low._x000D_ While growth showed signs of accelerating in Q3 of 2012, including in major middle-income countries such as Brazil and China, uncertainties being generated by the US election and fiscal cliff concerns, coupled with tensions between China and Japan over competing land claims cut into Q4 growth in high-income and developing countries. _x000D_ Prospects for a modest acceleration in the medium term ... _x000D_ Overall, the global economic environment remains fragile and prone to further disappointment, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. Global growth is expected to come in at a relatively weak 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in 2012 and 2013, respectively, and gradually strengthen to 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent in 2014 and 2015. _x000D_ At an estimated 5.1 percent, GDP growth in developing countries during 2012 was among the slowest in 10 years. Improved financial conditions, a relaxation of monetary policy and somewhat stronger high-income country growth is projected to gradually raise developing-country growth to 5.5 percent in 2013, 5.7 percent in 2014 and 5.8 percent in 2015 -- roughly in line with these countries' underlying potential. For high-income countries, fiscal consolidation, high unemployment and very weak consumer and business confidence will continue to weigh on activity in 2013, when GDP is projected once again to expand a mediocre 1.3 percent. Growth should, however, begin firming during the course of 2013, and expand by 2 percent in 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2015. In the Euro Area, growth is now projected to only return to positive territory in 2014, with GDP expected to contract by 0.1 percent in 2013, before edging up to 0.9 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015. _x000D_ Risks to the global outlook remain familiar, and include the possibility of a worsening of conditions in the Euro Area, persistent fiscal uncertainty in the United States, a disruption to oil or food commodity supply and the possibility of an abrupt slowing of investment growth in China. While the risks are similar, as compared with a year ago the likelihood that they are realized has diminished significantly as has the potential negative economic impacts for developing countries _x000D_ Assuring growth through increased productivity ... _x000D_ Addressing high unemployment and slack capacity remain priorities for countries in developing Europe and in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the majority of developing countries are operating at or close to full capacity. For them, additional demand stimulus could be counter-productive - raising indebtedness and inflation without significant payoff in terms of additional output. Moreover, while GDP growth should strengthen over the next couple of years, strong growth in developing countries is not guaranteed. To grow rapidly, developing countries will need to maintain the reform momentum that underpinned the acceleration of growth during the 1990s and 2000s. In the absence of additional efforts to raise productivity through structural reforms, investment in human capital, and improved governance and investment conditions, developing country growth may well slow.