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A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States
Ali Alichi
出版International Monetary Fund, 2015-06-30
主題Business & Economics / Production & Operations ManagementBusiness & Economics / InflationBusiness & Economics / Labor / General
ISBN15135234659781513523460
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ig00CgAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.