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Cost Growth in New Process Facilities

出版	Rand Corporation, 1983
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=in_sAAAAMAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This paper describes the causes of cost misestimation for major plants and speculates about why the estimation problem has been so resistant to resolution. My discussion is based on a substantial body of Rand work that developed methods for evaluating the cost, schedule, and performance of process plant projects. Figure 1 displays both the nature and the magnitude of the cost misestimation problem. This figure shows estimates for more than 40 chemical process plants built from the late 1960s to the early 1980s. When we categorize the estimates according to the project stage at which they were made, we see the size of the misestimation in early cost estimates, especially when new technology is involved. Even after the effects of inflation, unanticipated regulatory changes, and the like have been removed, estimates made before detailed engineering is well advanced are, on average, very poor predictors of the actual cost of plants. This problem of average underestimation is but one manifestation of the difficulties of arriving at reasonably accurate, reasonably early estimates.