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其他書名
Real-time Verification
出版Environmental Studies Research Funds, 1992
ISBN09216521199780921652113
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=jPwaAQAAIAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋In 1985, the Environmental Studies Research Funds financed the development of an operational iceberg trajectory forecasting model for the Grand Banks of Newfoundland as a potential ice management tool to support offshore oil field activity. This study was begun in 1990 to produce a field implementation of the model and produce a verification of the iceberg position predictions that were output by the model. Because the first well spudded in 1991 was very late in the iceberg season, no free-drifting iceberg position data became available that year, so a simulated operational trial was conducted using data from the 1990 season. Trials were run with track data for nine icebergs, with 84 predicted trajectories produced resulting in a total of 590 verifiable positions. A few tests were conducted using observed winds as well as forecast winds to examine the effects of wind forecast errors. Several comparisons of the model predictions at one forecast lead time were made with the output of a simple steady course model and with the assumption of persistence.