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Monetary Control in the Dominican Republic, 1965-80

Gladys Antonia DeJesus

出版	Ohio State University, 1983
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=jqVgNwAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋

This dissertation examines the ability of the monetary authority of the Dominican Republic to maintain the annual rate of growth of the money supply below 15% as mandated by law. The main analysis deals with two issues: the ability of the monetary authority to predict the money multiplier and the ability of the monetary authority to control the size of the monetary base. ARIMA models are estimated for the components of the multiplier and used in the forecast of their future values. The resulting one quarter forward multiplier has a standard deviation of about 7%. Granger causality tests are performed to ascertain that a causal relationship exists from the changes in central bank domestic credit to changes in central bank foreign assets, but not vice-versa. Although this is the direction suggested by the monetary approach to the balance of payments, which would indicate the monetary authority cannot control the base, the sign of the effect is, paradoxically, not as would be expected.