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The Politics of Diversion

其他書名	Disentangling the Relationship Between Time Horizons and the Decision to Use Force
出版	SSRN, 2011
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=kknczwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Scholars have long argued that time horizons alter incentive structures: when political actors face a high risk of being removed from their posts, they behave differently than they would otherwise. This study explores this idea in the context of conflict behavior. Using a new proxy for time horizons, it provides an in-depth empirical examination of how the risk of falling from power impacts decisions to use force. It looks at how different types of time horizons affect conflict initiation, an avenue previously unexplored in the literature. Consistent with the expectations of the diversionary theory of war, this study finds that short time horizons correspond with more aggressive international behavior. This relationship only holds, however, under certain conditions: leaders must be at risk of losing office unconstitutionally to incentivize the use force.