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Economic Analysis and Outlook for Central, East and Southeast Europe : Wiiw Forecast Report Autumn 2021
出版Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, 2021
ISBN38520907419783852090740
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=ltbJzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋The economic recovery in CESEE has strengthened further in recent months, resulting in a number of additional upgrades to our growth forecasts for 2021, to 5.4% on the regional average. This good performance has been built on two important foundation stones: the adaptation of the CESEE economies to the pandemic and the increasing reluctance of their governments to impose restrictions. Labour markets have recovered, too; labour shortages have been on the rise, albeit, paradoxically, underemployment is still an issue. Despite the recent rise in inflation, driven mostly by supply-side disruptions and energy prices, there have been so far few signs of overheating in the region. The pace of recovery is projected to slow to 3.7% next year and 3.5% in 2023. The risks to this forecast are mostly on the downside, and include particularly unfavourable COVID-19 developments, premature fiscal consolidation, and the upcoming monetary tapering in the US.