註釋 English Abstract: This study proposes a diversification policy for Korea's energy cooperation with the Middle East, based on the energy policy changes of oil-producing countries in the Middle East, Korea's largest source of energy imports, in the midst of the recent structural changes in the global energy market. Since the dramatic drop in global oil prices in 2014, the global energy market has undergone structural changes. On the supply side, the market power of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia has sharply weakened. In 2018, the U.S. emerged as the world's largest crude oil producer, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia. In addition to the U.S. and Russia, non-OPEC countries such as Brazil, Norway and Guyana have recently increased their oil production significantly. In contrast, oil prices remain at around $50 -60 per parrel even with U.S. economic sanctions against OPEC members Venezuela and Iran, which have blocked crude oil exports from these countries, as well as OPEC's production cuts from 2016. Major oil-producing countries in the Middle East are also responding to the supply changes in the global energy market by expanding natural gas production and strengthening investment in the downstream of the oil sector. In terms of demand in the global energy market, structural changes have continued, including changes in energy demand in emerging countries such as China, the introduction of alternative energy sources, and tightening of environmental regulations. Uncertainties in the global economy, including China, the largest importer of oil from the Middle East, will have a negative impact on global oil demand. The energy-mix transition of many countries from fossil energy to solar, wind, nuclear, and hydrogen energy will also decrease the demand for oil in the long term. In addition, demand for cleaner energy sources is increasing as the environmental regulations (IMO 2020) of the international shipping industry are tightening and air pollution issues caused by fine dust particles, etc. continue to grow. In addition, recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the global energy market significantly. These changes are important for Korea, which imports more than 70% of its oil from the Middle East. This study analyzes the energy policy changes of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, which are most directly affected by the structural changes in the global energy market, and suggests diversification of Korea's energy cooperation policy with the Middle East, focused on the oil and gas sector. Chapter 2 surveys changes in the supply side of the global energy market. Prior to the 2000s, energy companies had focused on developing conventional oil and gas, but interest in developing unconventional oil and gas has increased since mid-2000 as the price of hydrocarbon resources has risen. The development of new technologies, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, contributed to the increase in unconventional energy production. Production from main unconventional oil sources (tight crude oil, oil sands and deepwater oil) has continued to expand around the U.S., Canada and Brazil. Unconventional gas production increased 4.3 times during the 2000-2017 period, and the proportion of unconventional gas production in global natural gas production also expanded from 8% to 23%. The increase in global unconventional gas production was largely attributed to expanded the production of U.S. shale gas, with unconventional gas production in China, Australia and Argentina showing an increase as well. We can expect to see further changes in the energy mix in the future. The share of oil demand is forecast to fall to 28 percent in 2040, compared with 32 percent in 2017, while gas will increase from 22 percent to 25 percent, according to the IEA's forecast for demand by energy source. Chapter 3 surveys changes in the demand side of the global energy market from the perspective of changes in oil demand due to low oil prices, increased demand for alternative energy, and strengthened environmental regulations. Economic growth in developing countries such as India and Brazil, which have seen rapid increases in oil consumption, is expected to play a key role in increasing oil consumption. Meanwhile, demand for natural gas and LNG is expected to increase due to rising demand for eco-friendly fuel, and the continued improvement in the competitiveness of renewable energy prices, particularly in the areas of solar and wind power, will boost demand for renewable energy. In addition, eco-friendly car policies and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are likely to prompt a drop in oil demand, but demand for petrochemical products is expected to continue growing as the global economy develops. The International Maritime Organization's tightened regulations on the sulfur content of ship fuel oil are expected to cause changes in demand among petroleum products and a shift to non-oil ship fuel such as LNG. Chapter 4 examines the background of changes in energy policy in the Middle East and the direction in which these changes are being implemented. The volume of oil supplied by non-OPEC oil-producing countries is expected to increase up to 2024, driven by the rise in U.S. oil production and exports, etc., and leading to a drop in OPEC's share of the world's oil supply. The continued low oil prices have had a negative impact on the economies of oil-producing countries in the Middle East, with governments taking steps to reduce various subsidies, restructure and privatize state-run companies and introduce taxes. This situation is affecting the energy sector of oil-producing countries in the Middle East and leading to changes in related policies. Middle East oil producers are making policy efforts to diversify their energy sources by proceeding with large-scale investments in alternative energy. Renewable energy has received particular attention as an alternative energy source, and interest in nuclear energy is also emerging in some countries such as the UAE. Middle East countries have recently announced their targets for increasing the share of renewable sources within their energy portfolios. The target ratio of renewable energy to total power generation varies from 10% to more than 50%, with Morocco leading the group at 52%. GCC member countries are also actively promoting the expansion of renewable energy and scheduled to primarily focus on solar energy in accordance with regional characteristics. Oil-producing countries in the Middle East are also stepping up energy policies to reform government spending and their energy consumption structure. In particular, governments are trying to alleviate their financial burden and energy consumption by reducing energy subsidies, which account for a high proportion of government expenditure and GDP. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have established a body in charge of energy efficiency and are also starting to introduce efficiency programs. To improve the efficiency of energy management, the governments are also working on projects to foster smart grid industries, such as advanced metering infrastructure and energy management system projects. Chapter 5 compares the current status of energy cooperation in Japan, China and India, economies heavily dependent on energy imports from the Middle East, and explores major cooperation cases. Japan has been trying to reduce its energy dependence on the Middle East countries in response to the recent expansion of geopolitical instability in the region. Japan has continued to promote relations with these countries in the energy sectors by diversifying areas of cooperation beyond the import of fossil energy commodities. Recent bilateral energy cooperation projects are mainly designed to utilize Japan's cutting-edge technologies and the rich resources of the Middle East countries at the same time. A joint feasibility study on renewable energy infrastructure using IoT technologies, and the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) to utilize reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could be prime examples of this cooperation. In addition, the Japanese government is making efforts to maintain resource development projects in the Middle East region. Japan has been especially active in maintaining diplomatic relations with the UAE, where 40% of Japan's overseas oil concessions are located. 