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Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Michael J. Mazarr
Samuel Charap
Abigail Casey
Irina A. Chindea
Christian Curriden
Alyssa Demus
Bryan A. Frederick
Arthur Chan
John P. Godges
Eugeniu Han
出版
RAND Corporation
, 2021
主題
History / Asia / China
History / Europe / General
History / Military / Strategy
History / United States / General
Political Science / International Relations / General
Political Science / International Relations / Diplomacy
ISBN
1977406203
9781977406200
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=n8yvzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
The consensus inside and outside the U.S. government is that the international system is headed for a renewed era of intense and sometimes bitter competition among leading states. The objective of this research was to assess the emerging strategic competitions between the United States and both China and Russia, examine the approaches most likely to preserve long-term stability in these competitions, and draw implications for Army capabilities and posture. To this end, the authors reviewed existing literature on rivalries, identifying variables strongly associated with stability and instability, and, based on that research, developed a framework for assessment of such rivalries. They then applied this framework to historical cases of bilateral rivalries to identify the most important factors. Finally, they leveraged this work to assess the current state of U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China relations. Their assessment suggests that there are serious grounds for concern about the stability of both the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China rivalries. While certain contextual factors, such as mutual strategic vulnerability, will remain buffers of conflict, many of the warning signs for instability are clearly visible, and the future seems likely to be even more volatile. The report offers recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Army, in particular, to manage this challenging new era of competition. One overarching theme identified is that to ensure stability-and avoid war-the policy response to this intensified great-power competition should be nuanced and go beyond merely bolstering capabilities to counter rivals.