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Overconfidence

其他書名	Development, Increase, and Effect
出版	ProQuest LLC, 2018
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=nGWH0AEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋This cumulative dissertation consists of three studies that examine the presence and impact of overconfidence on young children, college students, and investors. First, the manuscript sheds light on the impact of shared decision-making on overconfidence. It is the first study to combine secondary and primary data to show that experimental participants who make their decisions in tandem with others are less affected by the cognitive bias than those who decide on their own. Secondary data suggest that consulting friends and family is associated with a more pronounced reduction in excessive confidence than solely relying on professional financial advice. Second, the dissertation revisits the issue of gender on investor overconfidence. A person's gender has previously been associated with the presence or absence of excessive confidence in finance. The results from multiple independent datasets provide evidence that male investors are not per se more overconfident than women. Among lone decision-makers, female financial actors exhibit more excessive confidence in their financial and investment knowledge than men. Furthermore, they seem equally likely to engage in reckless financial behavior. The outcome suggests that the presence of excessive confidence may depend on the type of decision-maker rather than a person's gender. Lastly, findings from the dissertation show that not only adults are affected by the bias. Previous studies provide evidence of its presence among young decision-makers in highly controlled lab settings. This study uses a double-blind randomized controlled trial in which 4- to 6-year-olds illustrate substantial overconfidence in their ability to win stickers while playing an unfamiliar card game that mirrors simplified aspects of financial markets. Even after 60 trials and regular feedback on their performance, almost every second child continues to be overconfident. This is the first study to show that overconfidence persists under more realistic circumstances with a large number of repetitions, feedback, and performance-based incentives. Randomly selected participants are exposed to a video sequence that provides implicit feedback and additional information which further increases excessive confidence. The three studies use innovative methods and approaches to provide novel insights into the nature of overconfidence.