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A Micro Simulation Model of Demographic Development and Households' Economic Behavior

出版	University of Pennsylvania, 1999
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=pIFkPAAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Simulations of the model permit to study the evolution of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation over the period 1994--2100. If fertility and mortality assumptions of recent official projections are adopted and marriage and divorce rates maintained at current levels, the dramatic aging of the population and the marked decline in the share of population living in traditional households would lead, other things equal, to a substantial decline in the aggregate saving rate. However, the reduction in the number of children per household and, especially, the decline in the ratio of social security wealth of households to disposable income, as the effects of a recently introduced reform begin to be felt, act as offsetting factors. As a result, the aggregate saving rate declines only slightly over the initial 30 years of the simulation, moderately increasing thereafter. Implications of changes in a number of key assumptions regarding the demographic evolution, productivity growth and individual behavioral responses, are also analyzed.