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Currency and Banking Crises
Graciela Laura Kaminsky
其他書名
The Early Warnings of Distress
出版International Monetary Fund, 1999-12-01
主題Business & Economics / Banks & BankingBusiness & Economics / Economics / MacroeconomicsBusiness & Economics / Finance / Financial Risk Management
ISBN14518589309781451858938
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=pl4YEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.