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The Role of Outside States in Shaping the Entrance Into Negotiations with Insurgents
註釋This project analyzes the relationship between outside support provided to counterinsurgents and negotiated settlements in insurgencies. I hypothesize that outside support to counterinsurgents is associated with the entrance into negotiations with insurgents. To test my hypothesis I analyze four cases: the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, the Russian intervention in Tajikistan, Vietnam's intervention in Cambodia, and United States support to the government of El Salvador. My analysis partly supports my hypothesis. Outside states supporting insurgencies are associated with local governments limiting their objectives in insurgencies, and in reaching a stalemate leading to negotiations. However, there is less of an association between outside support and a local government addressing the underlying causes of insurgencies.