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Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-implied and Realized Volatilities

出版	Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, 2004
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=rHdaAAAAYAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋"This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P 500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities results in significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn relate to a set of underlying macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns"--Abstract.