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Economic Expectations Under the Shadow of Party Polarization

其他書名	Evidence from 134 Cabinet Shifts
出版	SSRN, 2023
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=rgws0AEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋I study how political polarization shapes economic expectations. Using microdata from 27 countries over three decades, I use a difference-in-differences (DID ) design to analyze 134 government changes to identify how supporting the governing party affects expectations. My estimates reveal that the effect can be large, but varies widely across contexts, ranging from substantial effects (1.7 standard deviations) to statistically insignificant ones. The polarization of political parties is the key; it explains up to 58% of this variation. In addition, the estimated gap in supporters' expectations cannot be rationalized as reflecting only their exposure or beliefs about economic policy, suggesting instead that political (non-economic) conflicts contaminate economic expectations.