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The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?
Rupa DuttaguptaN. Barrera
出版International Monetary Fund, 2010-01-01
主題Business & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Investments & Securities / GeneralBusiness & Economics / Economics / Macroeconomics
ISBN14519617589781451961751
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=sI0YEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
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註釋This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition shows that financial conditions explain one-third of the total variability in Canada's real GDP growth, although changes in U.S. real GDP growth still account for a larger share of volatility in Canadian growth. A macro-financial conditions index built from the VAR's impulse responses shows that U.S. real GDP growth and lending standards will increasingly bear on Canada's growth, implying that a normalization of the U.S. economic and financial conditions is key for a sustained recovery in Canada.