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The Effect of Structural Risks on Financial Downturns
Martin Hodula
Jan Janků
Lukáš Pfeifer
出版
European Systemic Risk Board
, 2022
ISBN
9294722600
9789294722607
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=sRR_zwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
We investigate the extent to which various structural risks exacerbate the ma- terialization of cyclical risk. We use a large database covering all sorts of cyclical and structural features of the financial sector and the real economy for a panel of 30 countries over the period 2006Q1-2019Q4. We show that elevated levels of structural risks may have an important role in explaining the severity of cyclical and credit risk materialization during financial cycle contractions. Among these risks, private and public sector indebtedness, banking sector resilience and concentration of real estate exposures stand out. Moreover, we show that the elevated levels of some of the structural risks identified may be related to long-standing accommodative economic policy. Our evidence implies a stronger role for macroprudential policy, especially in countries with higher levels of structural risks.