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The Coming Generational Transformation
出版Center for American Progress, 2020
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=sjkIzgEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋Demographics are not destiny, but steady and predictable changes to the electorate play an important role in defining the landscape of American politics. Just as the country's population has changed substantially over the last several decades--growing older, more educated, and more racially diverse--we expect those changes to continue over the next several decades. In this 2020 report, we update our electoral scenarios in several important ways. First, we have produced a new set of underlying demographic projections for the nation and all 50 states plus the District of Columbia based on the latest census data. These projections trace the probable path of demographic change across the country--both for the population as a whole and, importantly, for eligible voters. Second, we have explicitly incorporated gender into our projections and scenarios for the first time. This is not because the population distribution between men and women is likely to change but because gender has become a more prominent dividing line in vote behavior both overall and within many demographic groups. Finally, and most importantly, we have included generations in our partitioning of the electorate and built electoral simulations that explicitly grapple with narratives about the likely evolution of generational cohorts over the next several decades.