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A New Indicator of Inflation Expectations Anchoring
其他書名
No 1996
出版European Central Bank, 2017
ISBN92899271869789289927185
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=smlGzQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋We compare the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area, the United States and the United Kingdom, focusing on the post-crisis period. First of all, we estimate a set of measures of average and tail correlation using inflation swaps and options, following Natoli and Sigalotti (2016). To quantify the degree of anchoring, we also propose a new indicator based on the results of a logistic regression, measuring the odds that strong negative shocks to short-term expectations are channelled to large declines in long-term expectations. The results reveal, for the euro area, an increase in the de-anchoring risk during the last quarter of 2014; while showing a significant reduction after the peak, our de-anchoring indicator remains high and volatile in 2015 and 2016. Expectations in the US and UK are instead found to be firmly anchored.