登入
選單
返回
Google圖書搜尋
Sticking with What (Barely) Worked
Lars Lefgren
出版
National Bureau of Economic Research
, 2011
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=tJqLtQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
註釋
Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win - even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model's predictions.