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Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts
Jonas DovernMr.Ulrich FritscheMr.Prakash LounganiMs.Natalia T. Tamirisa
其他書名
Evidence from a Large International Panel
出版International Monetary Fund, 2013-02-27
主題Business & Economics / ForecastingBusiness & Economics / Economics / TheoryBusiness & Economics / Econometrics
ISBN14755629509781475562958
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=u10ZEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.