登入選單
返回Google圖書搜尋
External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies
Mr.Christian B. MulderMr.Matthieu Bussière
其他書名
How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion
出版International Monetary Fund, 1999-07-01
主題Business & Economics / Foreign ExchangeBusiness & Economics / Exports & ImportsBusiness & Economics / Money & Monetary Policy
ISBN14518511469781451851144
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=uFYYEAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned.