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A New Global Tea Model
註釋The model of the world tea economy described herein has a number of general features which are shared by other econometric commodity models. The stylized version of an econometric agricultural commodity market model usually contains supply equations for the major producers, demand equations for major consumers and either inventory demand equations or price equations. However, within this general structure there are usually many variations. Section I of the report begins with a brief overview of the relevant literature concerning commodity models. Section II provides an overview of the new global tea model and an outline of important features of the data used in estimation. Section III sets out the theoretical specification and the empirical estimates of the supply side while Sections IV, V, and VI deal, respectively, with the demand side, price determination and the simulation properties of the model.