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The Proximate Determinants of Fertility

出版	International Statistical Institute, 1984
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=uYK3AAAAIAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋The effects on fertility of its 3 major proximate determinants were examined -- marriage, contraception, and postpartum infecundability. The model of Bongaarts was applied both at the national level and for residence and education subgroups of 29 World Fertility Surveys (WFSs). Using this large body of data, both methodological and substantive issues were addressed. The methdological parts of the report assessed the sensitivity of the estimates to alternative modes of constructing the components of the model. In the substantive analysis, the objective was to identify the sources of national and subnational variation in fertility in a large number of developing countries at varying stages of fertility transition. Possibly the most striking substantive findings concerned the nature of the compensating effects at the aggregate level of the 3 main proximate determinants. Cross-sectionally, the fertility increasing effect of shorter durations of postpartum infecundability among the more modern strata was almost always more than counterbalanced by the impact on fertility of nuptiality and contraceptive use. This suggests that the time lags between declines in breastfeeding and compensating movements in contraception and nuptiality were normally short in the contemporary developing world. The detailed analysis of residence and educational differentials in the proximate determinants revealed considerable regional and national diversity in the source of fertility differentials. In general, the negative associations between urbanity and fertility and between maternal schooling and fertility can be attributed to nuptiality and contraceptive effects of comparable size outweighing contrary lactation effects of half the size. In Africa, nuptiality, contraception, and breastfeeding were relatively less affected by urbanity and schooling than in the other regions. Equivalent differences of about 8 children between estimated total fecundity and observed fertility in Asia and the Americas came about through markedly different combinations of contraceptive and breastfeeding behavior, with breastfeeding of much greater importance in Asia and contraception in the Americas.