登入
選單
返回
Google圖書搜尋
Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
Mr.Romain A Duval
Mr.Kevin C. Cheng
Kum Hwa Oh
Richa Saraf
MissDulani Seneviratne
其他書名
A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia
出版
International Monetary Fund
, 2014-04-03
主題
Business & Economics / Exports & Imports
Business & Economics / Economics / Macroeconomics
Business & Economics / Finance / General
ISBN
1475523599
9781475523591
URL
http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=vVNiAwAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBook
SAMPLE
註釋
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.