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Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes
註釋This paper examines the impact of a collapsing exchange rate regime on output in an open economy in which shocks to capital flows and exports predominate. A sticky-price rational expectations model is used to compare the variability of output under the collapsing regime to that under alternative fixed and flexible regimes. A counterfactual exercise is performed for Mexico, using the parallel market exchange rate as a proxy for the shadow flexible rate. The exercise indicates the degree of volatility in real output that would have occurred if Mexico had adopted a flexible rate over the last 20 years instead of a series of controlled exchange rate regimes.