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Evaluating the Risk of Chinese Housing Markets

其他書名	What We Know and what We Need to Know
出版	National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=wvoFjwEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋Market-level analysis of short- and longer-run changes in supply-demand balances finds important variation across markets. In the major East region markets of Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen which have experienced very high rates of real price growth, we estimate that the growth in households demanding housing units has outpaced new construction since the turn of the century. However, there are a dozen large markets, primarily in the interior of the country, in which new housing production has outpaced household growth by at least 30% and another eight in which it did so by at least 10%. Regression results show that a one standard deviation increase in local market housing inventory is associated with a 0.45 standard deviation lower rate of real house price growth the following year.