International Strategic Research Center (ISRO – USAK) proudly announces the release of the report named “Turkey’s Power Capacity in the Middle East: Limits of the Possible” which is prepared by Osman Bahadir Dincer, USAK expert on Middle Eastern affairs, and Mustafa Kutlay, USAK expert on political economy; with the contribution of top-notch academics and USAK researchers from various fields of study. 

The previous version of the report in Turkish was published in May and introduced to a wide range of audience, from media organs to diplomats, through a conference held in USAK seminar hall. This latter version in English aims to open a new window towards the issues at glance for international researchers as well, by enabling the reader to bypass popular qualitative speculations and have a more clear vision of the quantitative aspect of Turkey’s power projection capabilities in the Middle Eastern theatre through a tri-color prism of diplomacy, economics and soft power. 

The arguments about whether Turkey is a role model in the Middle East or has attained the level of an “order establishing actor” are frequently voiced in print and visual media, but no systematic empirical analysis of these claims seems to have been carried out. This study sets out to fill this gap. Turkey’s capacity as a regional power is examined empirically, with special emphasis placed on the structural components of Turkey’s growing regional influence, and on the basis of data regarding its diplomatic, economic, and soft power components. This study concludes that Turkey is a country suffering from an “expectations-capabilities gap” in the Middle East, and that until the deficiencies identified in the study are remedied, Turkey will be unable to become a regional leader.