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Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments
Gheorghe TecuciDavid A. SchumDorin MarcuMihai Boicu
其他書名
Connecting the Dots
出版Cambridge University Press, 2016-08-30
主題Computers / Artificial Intelligence / GeneralComputers / Artificial Intelligence / Natural Language ProcessingPhilosophy / GeneralPhilosophy / EpistemologyPhilosophy / LogicPolitical Science / Intelligence & EspionageTrue Crime / Espionage
ISBN11071226009781107122604
URLhttp://books.google.com.hk/books?id=zVGwDAAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
EBookSAMPLE
註釋This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.