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The Real Effects of Household Debt in the Short and Long Run

出版	Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, 2017
URL	http://books.google.com.hk/books?id=-mpy0AEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api

註釋"Household debt levels relative to GDP have risen rapidly in many countries over the past decade. The authors investigate the macroeconomic impact of such increases by employing a novel estimation technique proposed by Chudik et al (2016), which tackles the problem of endogeneity present in traditional regressions. Using data on 54 economies over 1990-2015, they show that household debt boosts consumption and GDP growth in the short run, mostly within one year. By contrast, a 1 percentage point increase in the household debt-to-GDP ratio tends to lower growth in the long run by 0.1 percentage point. Their results suggest that the negative long-run effects on consumption tend to intensify as the household debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60%. For GDP growth, that intensification seems to occur when the ratio exceeds 80%. Finally, they find that the degree of legal protection of creditors is able to account for the cross-country variation in the long-run impact."--Abstract.